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doi: 10.18332/tpc/137085 186 RothmanK

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In summary, here are all the key assumptions in our model: -2% decline in traditional tobacco ex-menthol 50% drop in US menthol brand sales in 2026 driven by US ban 25% growth in smoke-free products near term, stepping down to 12% by 2030 40% incremental margins in smoke-free products 51% operating margins in combustibles, falling to 44% over time due to menthol ban and 60% decremental margins 11x terminal PE ratio in 2030 justified by the 35% revenue share of non-combustibles and 2% profit growth in that year